Projected table: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times

• Simulation: Played out the remaining fixtures 10,000 times with the Messi model's match chances.
• Proj. pts: Average finishing points across those simulations.
• Title, Top 4, Drop: Share of simulations where that happens (Drop = bottom three, including the play-off place in Germany and France).
• xGF, xGA: Chance quality for and against, in expected goals.
• Attack, Defence: Goals scored and conceded vs an average side (1.00 = average).
• Elo: A running strength score that moves after every result.

Upcoming matches: chance of a home win, draw or away win

Scorecard: the Messi model's saved forecasts vs actual results

Team strength: attack vs defence (1.00 = league average)

• Attack: Goals scored vs an average side, so 1.20 means 20% more.
• Defence: Goals conceded vs an average side, so below 1.00 is better.
• Method: Fitted from goals and expected goals (xG) by the Messi model's Dixon-Coles fit, with recent matches counting more (240-day half-life).

Clubs