Top 5 League Football Predictions - 2026-2027

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How often each forecast picked the right result, week by week

Picked right by league

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    The Messi model's pick for every match next matchweek

    • Pick: The likeliest result.
    • Chance: How often the Messi model expects that result to happen.
    Full chances for the next two rounds
    • Home, Draw, Away: The chance of each result.
    • Expected goals: The goals the Messi model expects each side to score.
    • Likeliest score: The single most likely scoreline, with its chance.

    The Messi model's saved forecasts vs actual results

    Error score over the season
    How well the Messi model's chances matched reality, and every saved forecast

    Title and relegation chances from 10,000 simulated seasons

    The Messi model outperformed the original model on every measure in the replayed 2025-26 season

    All models compared

    News tone and the Messi model's forecasts

    How the forecast works and its risks

    Sources

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